Onboarding
Lifecycle
Myth:Churn is a late-lifecycle problem.
Evidence:Most avoidable churn is set in the first sessions: users who reach a core activation action early retain at multiples of those who do not.
Impact8.7/10
Consensus8/10
Retention
LTV
Measurement
Academic
Effort: high
Volume: medium
Myth:Early cohort LTV projections are reliable planning inputs.
Evidence:LTV curves flatten unpredictably; projections built on the first weeks of a cohort routinely overstate long-run value.
The Nuance
Buy-till-you-die models with sufficient history are far more stable than linear extrapolation.
The Receipt
Counting Your Customers the Easy WayFader, Hardie & Lee, Marketing Science · 2005 · Academic
ContestedConsensus 5–7/10 — test before you scale
Impact8/10
Consensus7.2/10
Evidence70/100
Channels: analytics · lifecycle
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Unit Economics
Economics
Under watch
Myth:Growth is an acquisition problem.
Evidence:Modest retention improvements compound through the customer base and typically move profit more than equivalent acquisition spend, because retained revenue carries no CAC.
Impact8.6/10
Consensus7.8/10
Loyalty Economics
Loyalty
Myth:Loyal customers cost less to serve, pay more, and evangelize for free.
Evidence:Studying four companies over 16 months, Reinartz & Kumar found only a modest correlation between customer longevity and profitability: long-tenure customers expected discounts, were no cheaper to serve, and were not reliably the best word-of-mouth sources.
Impact8.5/10
Consensus8.2/10
WOM Economics
Word of Mouth
Myth:Word of mouth is a soft bonus next to paid media.
Evidence:Vector-autoregression modelling of a social network's growth shows WOM referrals have substantially longer carryover effects and substantially higher response elasticities than traditional marketing actions - and a referral's value can be monetized from the downstream ad revenue a new member generates.
Impact8/10
Consensus8/10
Loyalty
Programs
Myth:A points programme will increase loyalty.
Evidence:Most loyalty programmes reward behaviour that would have happened anyway; measured incremental effects are small and skew to already-heavy buyers.
Impact7.9/10
Consensus7.6/10
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