Methodology

How we score the evidence

Every Crib on this site is a claim we're willing to defend in a meeting, attached to the original source rather than the blog post that paraphrased it. Here's the rubric.

1. Source tiering

TierWhat countsHow we weight it
AcademicPeer-reviewed journals, working papers with published methods (NBER, JMR, JM, MSI).Highest. Replication and identification strategy matter more than sample size.
Primary ResearchOriginal large-scale studies from institutes that publish their method (IPA databank, Ehrenberg-Bass, Baymard, System1).High, when the method is documented and the sample is disclosed.
Independent AnalysisIndependent analysts with no product to sell against the finding, using observable data.Medium-high. Directionally trusted; magnitudes treated as estimates.
Vendor BenchmarkStudies published by a company that sells a solution to the problem the study finds.Lowest. Used only when it's the only dataset that exists, and always labelled.

2. Scoring rubric

Impact0–10
Expected effect on the business outcome if you act on the Crib. 8+ means it changes budget allocation, not just tactics.
Consensus0–10
How settled the finding is across independent sources. 9 = replicated repeatedly; 5 = credible but contested; below 4 = emerging.
Evidence strength0–100
Method quality: sample, design, transparency and independence. Randomised or quasi-experimental designs score highest; single-vendor surveys score lowest.
Effort / Volumelow / medium / high
Effort is what it costs you to act. Volume is how much of your addressable outcome the Crib touches.

3. "Under watch"

A Crib gets flagged Under watch when the underlying system is changing faster than the research can replicate — most of generative engine optimization sits here — or when a new credible study contradicts the current consensus and we haven't yet resolved which holds. Under-watch Cribs are still actionable, but treat the magnitude as unstable and re-check before betting a quarter on them.

4. What we refuse to publish

  • Statistics with no traceable primary source, however often they're repeated.
  • Vendor case studies presented as generalisable research.
  • Correlational findings dressed up in causal language.
  • Numbers we can't reproduce from the cited document.

5. Corrections

If a receipt is wrong, misread, or superseded, we change the Crib — the point of the site is to be correct, not consistent. Scores are revised whenever a stronger study lands.