Downturn Playbook
Also filed underPaid MediaB2B
Myth:Cut ad spend first when a downturn hits.
Evidence:The IPA's recession evidence review finds brands that maintain share of voice through a downturn recover faster and gain share over cutters - cutting spend mortgages the recovery.
Directional evidence, not a license to keep every line item: cut waste, keep presence.
IPA · 2026 · Independent Analysis
Channels: brand · planning · paid
Budget Allocation
Myth:Performance marketing should get the majority of budget.
Evidence:Across hundreds of IPA case studies, roughly 60% brand / 40% activation maximises long-term profit growth in consumer categories.
The Validity Gap
Myth:TV's ROI estimates justify current spend levels.
Evidence:Estimating elasticities and ROI across 288 brands, Shapiro, Hitsch & Tuchman find ad elasticities far smaller than the published literature suggests, negative ROI at the margin for more than 80% of brands, and positive overall ROI for only about a third.
Penetration
Myth:Loyal heavy buyers are the growth engine.
Evidence:Brand growth comes overwhelmingly from increasing penetration among light and non-buyers, not from deepening loyalty.
How Advertising Works
Myth:If ads don't move this week's sales, they didn't work.
Evidence:Across 751 short-term and 402 long-term elasticities from 56 studies (1960-2008), the average short-term advertising elasticity is 0.12 - but the mean long-term elasticity is 0.24, double the short-term, through carryover.
Creative Effectiveness
Myth:Targeting and media buying determine campaign outcomes.
Evidence:Creative quality accounts for roughly half of advertising-driven sales variance — a larger share than any single media variable.
One crib in your inbox every Monday. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.