Leading Indicators
Myth:Brand tracking surveys are the only forward indicator.
Evidence:Share of search leads market share by several months in many categories, giving a cheap, high-frequency brand-health proxy.
The lead time varies by purchase cycle; validate per category before trusting it.
Les Binet, IPA / EffWorks · 2020 · Independent Analysis
Channels: brand · search
Budget Allocation
Myth:Performance marketing should get the majority of budget.
Evidence:Across hundreds of IPA case studies, roughly 60% brand / 40% activation maximises long-term profit growth in consumer categories.
The Validity Gap
Myth:TV's ROI estimates justify current spend levels.
Evidence:Estimating elasticities and ROI across 288 brands, Shapiro, Hitsch & Tuchman find ad elasticities far smaller than the published literature suggests, negative ROI at the margin for more than 80% of brands, and positive overall ROI for only about a third.
Penetration
Myth:Loyal heavy buyers are the growth engine.
Evidence:Brand growth comes overwhelmingly from increasing penetration among light and non-buyers, not from deepening loyalty.
How Advertising Works
Myth:If ads don't move this week's sales, they didn't work.
Evidence:Across 751 short-term and 402 long-term elasticities from 56 studies (1960-2008), the average short-term advertising elasticity is 0.12 - but the mean long-term elasticity is 0.24, double the short-term, through carryover.
Creative Effectiveness
Myth:Targeting and media buying determine campaign outcomes.
Evidence:Creative quality accounts for roughly half of advertising-driven sales variance — a larger share than any single media variable.
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